THE naval base at Faslane, the A814 coast road, and the Helensburgh-Dumbarton railway line are all under threat from rising sea levels, according to a report.
The base - home of the Trident nuclear weapons system - is included among "at risk" areas in a study by Scottish Natural Heritage (SNH) which examines how sea-level rise will affect low-lying coastal areas of the Clyde, writes David Carnduff.
Regarding the naval base specifically, the report said: “Buildings close to the shore will be inundated, as will any static (non-floating) moorings.”
Hard on the heels on the report, Scottish Green MSP Ross Greer has raised the matter in the Scottish Parliament, speaking of “grave consequences” if the report is not followed up by serious action."
He said: “The expectation that buildings and moorings at Faslane are under threat of inundation is frightening, given the history of radiation leaks and other accidents on the base.”
This week, the Ministry of Defence said the “potential risks” posed by climate change to the base had been discussed earlier this year and it would “continue to monitor the situation closely”.
The SNH report says sea levels will rise by up to 0.47 metres by 2080, presenting a challenge in terms of managing potential effects on certain low-lying coastal areas of the Clyde.
The report identifies more than 100 developed areas, designated sites, and roads and railways where action should be taken to avoid potential impacts.
Mr Greer has highlighted the "real danger" that hundreds of houses and the railway line to Helensburgh will be flooded.
He told the Advertiser: “We need to get serious about sea level rise threatening coastal communities across the Firth of Clyde.
“The report talks about a half metre rise in sea levels - but if we don’t take urgent action on the climate crisis we could be looking at nearly a metre.
“The damage could be far worse than projected, given the current pace of climate change.
“We urgently need not only to invest in flood defences but in the kind of industrial strategy which creates jobs in clean energy technology, lifting people out of poverty and tackling climate change.”
Mike Cantlay, chair of SNH, said: “We have identified more than 100 locations in the west of Scotland that may be at greater flood risk due to rising tides over the next 50 years.
“Having this advance notice allows partners to work together to address potential issues and plan ahead for ways to mitigate these risks.”
Professor Des Thompson of SNH said: “Clearly sea-level rise and its potential impacts represent a widespread issue which will affect low-lying land around the Firth of Clyde.”
The report says one way to combat the effects of rising sea levels is "managed realignment", a technique in which river, estuary and or coastal water is deliberately allowed to extend beyond current flood defences to create a coastal frontage more able to cope with rising sea levels.
But it says more detailed work is required to assess if managed realignment is the most appropriate action to reduce future risks from sea-level rise in these locations.
A spokesman from the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) said: “The report on sea level rise within the Clyde recently published by SNH is based on the UK Climate Change Projections produced in 2009 (UKCP 09). These use a present day baseline of 1980-1999.
"SEPA also used the UKCP 09 climate change projections to inform the Flood Risk Management Strategies published in 2016.
"There are a number of Potentially Vulnerable Areas identified within the Clyde with actions to reduce flood risk including Potentially Vulnerable Area 11/01 (Loch Lomond and Vale of Leven) and Potentially Vulnerable Area 11/02 (Helensburgh to Loch Long).
“Climate change is accelerating sea level rise. SEPA is involved in the UKCP 18 climate change projections project and will use this to inform the next FRM Strategies due for publication in 2021.
"The Met Office currently anticipates that sea level rise projections will increase by up to 30 per cent from UK09 projections.
"SEPA work in partnership with local authorities and other organisations to identify areas of potential future flood risk, taking into account sea level rise, and identify sustainable actions to reduce these risks.”
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